X-RAYING THE YEAR LONG RUSSIA-UKRAINE MILITARY CONFLICT
By Lawa Sale Maida
Today February 24 marks a year since the beginning of the needless military conflict in the Eastern Ukraine between Russian and Ukrainian forces.
The genesis of the conflict was when in 2014 November 2013 a planned association treaty between the EU and Ukraine was scuttled just days before it was signed. The accord would have integrated Ukraine into EU politically and economically but was stopped by the then Russia backed president Victor Yanukovich. As a result, western backed protests erupted in Ukraine major cities with Maidan square in Kiev being the epicentre. After all efforts to address the issue failed, president Victor Yanukovich was forced relinquish power on February 24 and fled the country.
Yanukovich, who hail from Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine, escaped into exile to Russia when he was overwhelmed by the pustch. His ouster also heralded a counter-revolutionary protests in Southern and Eastern Ukraine where Russian speaking Ukrainians are based.
Since then, there was no love lost between Russia and it’s western partners over Ukraine. U.S and it’s European/NATO allies on the other hand capitalised on the regime change to launch it’s advancement project towards the Eastern planks down to the Russia’s backyard in Ukraine with the aim of integrating Ukraine into EU and NATO in near future. Already, countries that belonged to the former Communist block such as Poland, Croatia, Albania, Macedonia and the Baltic states are full members of NATO.
As a result of this deliberate advancement to the East, Russia severally warned that any attempt to breach it’s security interests by co-opting Ukraine into the military alliance will be met with appropriate response. Ukraine shares a lengthy border with Russia and has majority ethnic Russians on it’s territory.
In the beginning of the current military conflict before Russia deployed it’s troops on Ukrainian soil, there have been diplomatic efforts by president Macron of France, president Erdoğan of Tùrkiye, the UN and many other world leaders in an effort to avoid what is now a catastrophe but to no avail; this is largely because some interested parties in the conflict kept fuelling the crisis until when it got to the current level of uncertainties.
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The one year military conflict which many see as proxy war has so far claimed thousands of lives, destruction of property and infrastructure from both sides. It was estimated that about 20% of Ukrainians are taking refuge outside the country, 50% are displaced internally and 30% stay put to endure the war.
Over the last one year, few diplomatic efforts were made to bring an end to the conflict but for the unflinching military, defence, intelligence, logistics and the humanitarian support Ukraine is getting from the US, UK, EU, NATO and allies, the war is still raging and it seems it will not end in the short term. So far it was estimated that about $150 billion was channeled to Ukraine to execute the war.
On the other hand, Russia as a solo fighter of it’s own battle has in addition to the battle and loss of troops, the US and it’s European allies had earlier slammed the Putin administration with numerous sanctions in an attempt to slash it’s energy income and cripple it’s economy so that it will be difficult for Putin to execute the war; that aim however, has not been achieved according to president Putin in his state of the nation speech earlier in the week.
The impact of this war is also being felt around the globe that is recovering from the effect of COVID-19. Russia being the largest supplier of gas to European and Asian countries was unable to trade in the commodity due to the western sanctions and Ukraine being the largest producer of wheat, sunflower oil and maize also had its supply chain slowed down by the war. The world over became energy food insufficient thereby raising the cost of almost all the necessities for the commoners.
Though there is glimmer of hope in bringing the war to an end as China indicated interest in mediating between the warring factions. Wang Yi, a member of the Communist Party of China Politburo and Director of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs has visited Putin in Moscow eventhough it was sketchy what they discussed concerning the earlier pronouncement by the Chinese to be peace makers in Ukrainian conflict.
In conclusion and in my opinion, having seen the enormous resources and logistics channeled to Ukraine in the last one year, this war is not between Russia and Ukraine but between Russia and U.S/NATO. It is unfortunate that as a result of this dangerous conflict that has no end in sight, women, elderly and children are the ones at the receiving end. Peace!
— Maida, is an Abuja based Global Affairs Analyst.
