Panic as further increase in food prices loom
There are growing concerns that the price of bread and other food items may rise again across the country, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Russia and Ukraine are major wheat exporters to Nigeria and some African countries. Wheat is the main ingredient for food items such as bread, cereals, biscuits, pastries, and pasta.
Even before the Russian army crossed into Ukraine, bread and food prices had been on the rise for the past year. So far, prices of bread have risen by 100 per cent in most parts of the country, no thanks to incessant increases in the prices of baking materials, factory rent and wages, which had made it difficult for the bakers to break even.
Due to Nigeria’s dependence on Russian durum wheat, the nation is at risk of suffering from significant food shortages and uptick food inflationary pressure, due to the war.
Speaking with The Nation, the National President, the Federation of Agricultural Commodity Associations of Nigeria (FACAN), Dr. Victor Iyama, noted that the war in Ukraine could push up the price of bread as Nigeria and other countries rely on Ukraine and Russia, which are major producers of wheat, most of is imported by countries in the Middle East and Africa.
According to him, higher wheat prices would translate into higher bread prices for all.
The financial consequences on consumers will be large given the relatively high percentage of income spent on food, and bread in particular, experts said.
Right now, there are no subsidies for staples such as wheat and could drive the price of bread with inadequate local production.
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A university don, Prof Abiodun Adeloye warned that the hostility in Ukraine could have a possible ripple effect in African nations. His words: “Bread is a staple in household diets. It is the delicacy of the young growing children. Bread forms one of the easy to access foods which are offered by parents at affordable prices but the main constituent of bread is wheat. Thirty per cent of the global production of wheat comes from the war affected zones, Russia and Ukraine. So, it is expected that the cost of bread may rise soon. Such rise in cost of bread would cause a shift in household dietary needs to other alternatives such as yam, cassava, and cocoyam – the costs of which would equally rise.”
He continued: “Fertiliser, especially the phosphate, comes from this war zone. A short supply of the fertiliser materials would have negative effect on the growth performance and quality and quantity of harvest of major crops, maize, sorghum, cassava, yam and others. The implications are clear as poor harvest will cause short supply, increased costs and increased food insecurity.”
Leaders in our nations are enjoined to be pro-active in preventing food shortage in the wake of the war. Governments should come up and chart a way to sustain agricultural productivity and undisturbed food supply to the citizen. Local productions should be encouraged and monitored. Stakeholders in agriculture and food production enterprises should be called up to discussion and advice the governments. Indigenous knowledge should be embraced to enhance and sustain good harvests. Farmers cooperative and community efforts should be harnessed and governments in the nations need to come up with policies that would prevent an upsurge in food insecurity. If Africa is not in the war, nations in the continent should not suffer.”
According to analysts, the price of wheat has been surging to multi-year highs since Russia began a special military operation in Ukraine, signaling the start of a full-blown invasion of its neighbour. The rally in the price of wheat is as a result of investors’ worry about a potential supply disruption, being that Russia is the top wheat exporter in the world, accounting for 24 per cent of the total wheat exports in the world.
With sanctions breathing down on the Russian nation and many private companies refusing to deal with the country, the possibility of a distortion in durum wheat import from Russia is very high.
Trade between Nigeria and Russia is currently valued at over $2 billion. Russia plays a vital role in Nigeria’s international trade as the nation is one of Nigeria’s top sources for its imported items, especially food items.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria imported goods from Russia is currently valued at N813.19 billion (over $2b annualized) between January and September 2021, representing 3.7 percent of Nigeria’s total import in the same period.
