Why Coronavirus cases in Lagos may surge to 39,000 – Health commissioner

Lagos State warned on Friday that coronavirus cases in the state may surge to 39,000 in the coming weeks if proactive measures were not put in place to avoid the situation.

Lagos currently has 44 confirmed cases, which include 41 active cases and 3 discharged patients.

Health Commissioner, Prof. Akin Abayomi, at a news conference disclosed that about 3,000 primary contacts of those infected with the disease were being traced on daily basis.

He warned that infected cases may increase if the contacts were not observing self-isolation or social distancing.

According to him, the mathematical projection was that the state could have up to 39,000 cases.

He said this has not happened because of the state’s strategy of tracing primary contacts of victims and constant follow up.

At worse, the state does not expect to have more than 13,000 cases, he said.

Lagos is making significant progress compared to what is happening across the globe, he added.

“We have to make sure that we practise aggressive social distancing. If we carry on with our strategy we will not give the disease the opportunity to spread.”

Abayomi stated that the current statistics compared to other countries after four weeks showed that the country was getting it right, containing and curtailing the virus.

“We are doing something right in Lagos. Then if we continue to do that, we will remain on the lower trajectory.

“It shows we are keeping the curve flat which is allowing us to keep up with number of cases we have so far. Until the virus runs out of wind, the curve will flatten, bend and continue to reduce.

“At four weeks, Spain and Italy had thousands of cases.

“But after four weeks we have just 37. Our data shows that Lagos and Nigeria are doing very well in containing this virus.”

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